2007 MLB Playoffs Betting Picks - October 5th, 2007

by admin on October 6th, 2007

MLB Playoff Picks: New York (A) vs. Cleveland
Take Over
1 Unit on Yankees/Indians OVER 9.5 (action) The bats will be better than the pitching in this series. We’ll take advantage of that tonight. NY is 13-5 OVER in road games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The Yanks are 25-11 OVER in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons and 26-13 OVER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER in this one.

MLB Playoffs Picks: New York (A) vs. Cleveland 
Take New York (A) Yankees
1 Unit on NY Yankees -124 (listing Pettitte) The Yanks will bounce back tonight. Carmona has never started a postseason game. Expect the Bronx Bombers to welcome him to the playoffs with a slugfest. Pettitte brings lots of experience to the mound for the Yankees. We’ll take the veteran Yankees to bounce back against the inexperienced Indians. 

Originally Syndicated via RSS from Touthouse Free Sports Picks

Short Sided Round Robin Format for Basketball and Soccer

by admin on October 6th, 2007

The computer age has bestowed some unforeseen blessings on the sports world. Math whizzes are now using the personal computer to track game results to a level never before possible, and sports are the better for it. The book “Moneyball” chronicled the way Billy Beane, general manager of the Oakland Athletics used obscure statistical analyses to scout and deal for talent. Now, a variation of this method has spilt over into basketball with a number of NBA teams using statistics in a similar manner. These methods were described in a recent Sports Illustrated article titled “Measure of Success.” Described as simply as possible, these statisticians track how well a team does when a player is on the floor, versus how well they do when they aren’t.

These measures disregard a player’s contribution as represented by their scoring, rebounding and assists totals, and simply asks, “Does the team do better or worse when this player is on the floor?” They also in many cases contradict the conventional wisdom concerning the relative worth of certain players. Jason Collins, a fifth-year center for the Nets of little renown gets ranked as the fourth best defensive center in the league. Conversely, high-scoring Michael Redd of the Milwaukee Bucks is such a disaster on defense that his teams tend to lose with him on the floor, and win while he is on the bench.

While amateur coaches are sure to find these analyses interesting, is there any way in which they can employ these metrics for their own use? Amateur coaches might be able to get team assistants to gather the data needed to maintain these stats, but there is a much better way these concepts can be applied.

Virtually all teams rely heavily on scrimmage play as part of their practice routine. By adopting what I call a Roster Round Robin format during scrimmage play, coaches can get a much clearer picture of how and when individual players perform better than others. The format simply requires that sides be set to 3v3, 4v4, or 5v5, depending on available players. Players are issued reversible jerseys, and score is kept for each side. Stages are set to 3 or 4 minutes, and at the end of each stage, a team score is recorded, with each player earning points for themselves on the basis of their team result. Two players are then directed to exchange sides by flipping their reversible jersey, and a new stage is played. This pattern is continued until all possible roster combinations have been used.

For a 3v3 contest, this would equate to 10 possible combinations, thus requiring a 30 to 40 minute game. Each player earns a plus/minus score across all stages. As everyone plays under all roster combinations and points can only be earned on the basis of team results, an individual’s result reflects their team contribution across all stages. In order to maintain game continuity and ensure rapid roster rotations, the roster rotations are predetermined and printed on a grid used for scoring.

Some may notice that the one thing seemingly not taken into account in this format is position play. A roster rotation schedule that disregards position play will likely result in some oddly balanced sides - think 5 guards versus 5 forwards and centers - that wouldn’t reflect anything resembling a real-game matchup. This difficulty can, however, be overcome by taking positions into account when devising the roster rotations. For a 4v4 game, with players restricted to either a center/forward or guard position, there would be 9 different roster combinations required. For a full-sided game, a center position could be added, but 18 stages would be required. With three minute stages, this would be a 54 minute scrimmage game. Coaches may wish to split this size of scrimmage across multiple practices.

Would the results from any particular scrimmage mean much? For one game, probably not, as we all know the ball can bounce funny for a time. But if this format were used on a regular basis, the results should reveal which players are contributing the most to their team. These results will either confirm or deny a coach’s sense of who his best players are, but there are two even bigger benefits that can come from the use of this format. First, as players come to understand this as the new measure of their play, they will be more receptive to a coach’s instruction on team play. As well, players will intuitively respond to the demands of the game, and adjust their play accordingly. Simply put, the ability to measure team play translates to a better ability to teach and learn it.

The second benefit may be even more important. A system that clearly and demonstrably measures a player on the basis of their team contribution fosters team chemistry better than any other. The talented offensive player who lets down on defense can be brought to the table when the impact of his lackluster defense can be shown. Players who are frustrated because they think they should be playing more can either makes their case in the round robin practice, or be shown they’re not there yet. Regardless of the case, team chemistry is advanced.

The only real barriers to this practice format are logistical. Running this practice format requires pre-numbered reversible jerseys, and scoring/rotation grid sheets. Both are available at Rejersey.com.

The format can also be adapted for tryouts and tournaments.

About the Author

Tom Cobb is an avid soccer player and the owner of Rejersey.com. Rejersey.com is committed to providing the best jerseys for team sports while also supporting the sports that create the need for our products. Our jerseys are perfect for practice or pick-up, as well as team and tournament play. On top of this, we go a step further, and help those who are passionate about team sports with fund-raising, and organizing their teams, schedules and facilities.

Free Baseball Picks - September 21st, 2007

by admin on September 22nd, 2007

MLB Chicago (A) vs. Minnesota
Take Minnesota Twins
1 Unit on Minnesota -175 (listing Santana) Santana is 24-2 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons, 41-4 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons and 23-2 against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 3 seasons. They don’t get any better than Santana. We’ll take the Twins at home behind their ace.

MLB Oakland vs. Cleveland
Take Cleveland Indians
1 Unit on Cleveland -172 (listing Carmona) The Tribe is on fire having won 9 of its last 11 games. The Indians are 11-4 in Carmona’s home starts this season and he has won each of his last 3 starts while posting an ERA of just 1.21. The A’s have lost 4 in a row. Cleveland is 16-3 against the money line in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Take the Tribe.

MLB Milwaukee vs. Atlanta
Take Atlanta Braves
1 Unit on Atlanta -153 (listing Hudson) Hudson is 11-0 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. The Braves are winning these games by 4.9 runs per game on average. Milwaukee is just 8-26 against the money line in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons. Good pitching has equalled losses for the Brew Crew. Take the Braves. 

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Originally Syndicated via RSS from Touthouse Free Sports Picks

Free Baseball MLB Picks - September 17th, 2007

by admin on September 18th, 2007

MLB Picks - Pittsburgh vs. San Diego
Take San Diego Padres
1 Unit on San Diego -158 (action) The Bucs are just 24-55 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Pitt is 8-33 against the money line in road games after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons and 2-13 against the money line in road games after allowing 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. San Diego is 22-9 against the money line after 4 straight games where they committed no errors over the last 3 seasons and 22-6 against the money line in home games in September games over the last 3 seasons. When you’re picking ‘em up and throwing ‘em out like the Pads right now, you’re going to be very successful. We’ll take San Diego at home tonight as they stay hot.

MLB Picks - Boston vs. Toronto
Take Boston Red Sox
1 Unit on Boston -125 (listing Wakefield) Boston is 5-1 on the road against the Jays this season. Wake in an unbelievable 13-6 when starting against Toronto with an ERA of 3.64 since 1997. His team is 19-10 against the ML in those starts. The Jays have dropped 7 of 9 and after losing a tough series to the Yanks at home you can bet Boston will show no mercy. Take the Bean Town Boys

MLB Picks - Chicago (A) vs. Kansas City
Take Chicago (A) White Sox
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -125 (listing Vazquez) KC is just 6-19 against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better this season. The Royals are just 19-54 against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better over the last 3 seasons. Davies is 4-14 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Davies has had a rough season. Vazquez has looked better all year long and especially of late. We’ll side with the better starter tonight.

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